2024 Indo-Pacific Elections
Dubbed ‘the year of elections’, nearly half of the world’s population will be eligible to vote in an election in 2024, with over 4 billion voters across more than 40 countries set to cast their ballots.
The Indo-Pacific is home to some of the most significant and influential of these elections: India, Indonesia, Taiwan and, of course, the United States. In the Indo-Pacific alone, hundreds of millions of people will shape the political future of the region.
This will be a testing year for democracy, for political will, and for regional stability, as voters determine the next few years of political rule.
For curated election news and analyses, see our updates below.
2024 Indo-Pacific Elections
United States of America
Hackers take on US election security challenge
Last updated: 2 September 2024
US election security was one of the most talked about topics at DEF CON, the infamous annual hacking conference held in Las Vegas this month.
Significantly, no one succeeded in the conference’s hacking challenge, which invited anyone to exploit and break the US’ Secure Internet Voting system in a simulated online election.
Analysis: With just months until the US presidential election, the security of electronic vote counting is critical to the transition of power, regardless of who wins. Public officials’ trust in the system would have been reinforced by this exercise; but Trump-voters likely remain sceptical.
Resources on the US election
The outcome of the upcoming US presidential election has the power to greatly influence affairs not only domestically, but particularly within the Indo-Pacific. The complexities of America’s system make the election process difficult for outsiders to decipher and coherently understand. The Perth USAsia Centre is seeking to provide concise explanations of key dates, terms and timelines as the election progresses.
2024 US Election Watch: Episode 1
2024 US Election Watch: Episode 1
In Episode 1, the pair discusses embattled former President Donald Trump’s legal woes, and whether or not his recent convictions could lead to jail time.
Explore2024 US Election Watch: Episode 2
2024 US Election Watch: Episode 2
In Episode 2, the pair discuss Biden’s decision to step down from the race, what this means for the Democratic Party and the impact Harris’ nomination will have on Trump’s campaign
Explore2024 US Election Watch: Episode 3
2024 US Election Watch: Episode 3
In Episode 2, the pair discuss Biden’s decision to step down from the race, what this means for the Democratic Party and the impact Harris’ nomination will have on Trump’s campaign
ExploreThailand
Constitutional Court removes Thailand’s PM
Last updated: 2 September 2024
Thailand’s Constitutional Court has ousted the country’s Prime Minister Sretta Thavisin from the role, for a constitutional violation. Thavisin will be succeeded by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the third member of the Shinawatra family to become prime minister.
A week prior, the had court dissolved the Move Forward Party, which held the most seats in parliament, over its plans to amend strict lèse majesté laws (outlawing criticism of the Thai King).
Analysis: The military-backed government continues to crack down on dissent and uses lèse majesté laws to suppress criticism. The Constitutional Court’s political interventions highlight the key role Thailand’s judiciary has played in this protracted political crisis.
Bangladesh
Muhamad Yunus sworn in as interim leader of Bangladesh
Last updated: 29 August 2024
Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has become the interim leader of Bangladesh, after a month of deadly anti-government protests that saw Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina flee the country.
His appointment fulfils a key demand of protesters. Yunus has called this Bangladesh’s “second liberation” and has stated his intentions to hold elections as soon as possible.
Analysis: This upheaval has caused political prisoners and exiles persecuted under Hasina’s rule to re-emerge in recent weeks. Hasina, who is in India, faces mounting criminal charges for the protests.
France
France faces hung parliament after shock election
Last updated: 18 July 2024
French President Emmanuel Macron is facing a hung parliament after he called a snap election last month. An alliance of leftist parties fell short of a majority, despite winning the most seats in the elections, held June 30 and July 7.
Macron’s centrist Ensemble party holds the second-largest proportion of parliament, and the far-right National Rally – whose popularity in the EU elections led to this election – came in third.
Analysis: France’s election affects the Indo-Pacific. With seven Indo-Pacific territories, this parliament must navigate discontent at home and in the region, including New Caledonia’s pro-independence movement.
Mongolia
Mongolian People’s Party ahead in preliminary election results
Last updated: 18 July 2024
The ruling Mongolian People’s Party has narrowly retained majority in Mongolia’s parliament, as endemic corruption continues to erode public confidence in government.
The 2024 election is the first time Mongolians have voted for an extended parliament, which increased from 76 to 126 seats, following a constitutional amendment. Early results suggest a coalition government could be formed.
Analysis: Mongolia has reserves of battery minerals, which are essential for the global energy transition. The stability of its democracy and investment environment matters to the Indo-Pacific.
Republic of South Korea
South Koreans call for President Yoon’s replacement
Last updated: 18 July 2024
Public discontent towards South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has hit an all-time high after an online petition calling for his removal crashed due to popularity.
The petition, which has more than 811,000 signatures, accuses Yoon of corruption and stoking tensions with North Korea. Parliament must review petitions over 50,000 signatures.
Analysis: Yoon has already suffered in the court of public opinion – April’s election results delivered a decisive blow to his party. This petition shows the depth of public disapproval.
India
Modi re-elected despite BJP voting shortfall
Last updated: 6 June 2024
After six weeks of voting, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has claimed victory for his coalition. But vote counts show the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) most lacklustre result in a decade.
The BJP, who were aiming to win a supermajority with 400 seats, were awarded only 240 – losing their outright majority and relying on allies to form government.
Analysis: Modi’s victory is no surprise; he remains one of the world’s most popular leaders. But with mounting concerns over democratic backsliding, these results show that his leadership will be under scrutiny.
Indonesia
Indonesia’s Supreme Court lowers age limit for regional elections
Last updated: 6 June 2024
Ahead of its regional elections in November, Indonesia’s top court has revised the minimum age requirement for candidates. The revision requires candidates to be aged at least 30 at the time of inauguration rather than during their electoral bid.
The decision comes as outgoing President Widodo’s 29-year-old son Kaesang Pangarep seeks to run for deputy governor of Jakarta, and follows similar controversy linked to Widodo’s older son last year.
Analysis: The court’s move not only reinforces significant concerns over dynastic politics but raises doubts over the independence and integrity of Indonesia’s judiciary.
Resources on Indonesia’s election
Taiwan
Taiwan inaugurates President Lai Ching-te
Last updated: 6 June 2024
Lai Ching-te has been inaugurated as Taiwan’s new president. He has pledged to neither “yield [to] nor provoke” Beijing, and urged China to stop its intimidation of Taiwan.
Lacking a legislative majority, Lai’s presidency has already been marked by protests and parliament brawls over a controversial legislative package, pushed by the opposition.
Analysis: Lai faces a tough first term and a belligerent China – Beijing has scolded South Korean and Japanese ministers for attending the inauguration, and conducted military drills around Taiwan.
Pakistan
Pakistan’s election leaves unpopular coalition in power
Last updated: 19 February 2024
After failing to win a majority, the army-backed Muslim League-Nawaz will join with the Pakistan People’s Party to form government.
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, won the most seats – though still a minority – even after Khan’s sentencing, military intervention on polling day, and the suspension of mobile services to keep voter turnout low.
Analysis: Marred by Islamic State bombings, allegations of voting rigging, and the opposition’s popularity, the outcome of this election is unlikely to guarantee the political stability Pakistan needs.
Bhutan
Bhutan elects former PM Tshering Tobgay
Last updated: 1 February 2024
Former People’s Democratic Party Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay will return to power after his party won 30 of Bhutan’s 47 national assembly seats in the country’s January 9 election.
This is Bhutan’s fourth democratic election following its transition from a monarchy just 15 years ago.
Analysis: Bhutan’s election is refreshing for South Asia, especially given the controversies in Bangladesh. But the new government has to tackle a struggling post-pandemic economy and mass youth migration.
