2024 Indo-Pacific Elections

The US Presidential Election

Last updated: 4 April 2024

The outcome of the upcoming US presidential election has the power to greatly influence affairs not only domestically, but particularly within the Indo-Pacific. The complexities of America’s system make the election process difficult for outsiders to decipher and coherently understand. The Perth USAsia Centre is seeking to provide concise explanations of key dates, terms and timelines as the election progresses.

France faces hung parliament after shock election

Last updated: 18 July 2024

French President Emmanuel Macron is facing a hung parliament after he called a snap election last month. An alliance of leftist parties fell short of a majority, despite winning the most seats in the elections, held June 30 and July 7.

Macron’s centrist Ensemble party holds the second-largest proportion of parliament, and the far-right National Rally – whose popularity in the EU elections led to this election – came in third.

Analysis: France’s election affects the Indo-Pacific. With seven Indo-Pacific territories, this parliament must navigate discontent at home and in the region, including New Caledonia’s pro-independence movement.

Mongolian People’s Party ahead in preliminary election results

Last updated: 18 July 2024

The ruling Mongolian People’s Party has narrowly retained majority in Mongolia’s parliament, as endemic corruption continues to erode public confidence in government.

The 2024 election is the first time Mongolians have voted for an extended parliament, which increased from 76 to 126 seats, following a constitutional amendment. Early results suggest a coalition government could be formed.

Analysis: Mongolia has reserves of battery minerals, which are essential for the global energy transition. The stability of its democracy and investment environment matters to the Indo-Pacific.

Modi re-elected despite BJP voting shortfall

Last updated: 6 June 2024

After six weeks of voting, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has claimed victory for his coalition. But vote counts show the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) most lacklustre result in a decade.

The BJP, who were aiming to win a supermajority with 400 seats, were awarded only 240 – losing their outright majority and relying on allies to form government.

Analysis: Modi’s victory is no surprise; he remains one of the world’s most popular leaders. But with mounting concerns over democratic backsliding, these results show that his leadership will be under scrutiny.

South Koreans call for President Yoon’s replacement

Last updated: 18 July 2024

Public discontent towards South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has hit an all-time high after an online petition calling for his removal crashed due to popularity.

The petition, which has more than 811,000 signatures, accuses Yoon of corruption and stoking tensions with North Korea. Parliament must review petitions over 50,000 signatures.

Analysis: Yoon has already suffered in the court of public opinion – April’s election results delivered a decisive blow to his party. This petition shows the depth of public disapproval.

Indonesia’s Supreme Court lowers age limit for regional elections

Last updated: 6 June 2024

Ahead of its regional elections in November, Indonesia’s top court has revised the minimum age requirement for candidates. The revision requires candidates to be aged at least 30 at the time of inauguration rather than during their electoral bid.

The decision comes as outgoing President Widodo’s 29-year-old son Kaesang Pangarep seeks to run for deputy governor of Jakarta, and follows similar controversy linked to Widodo’s older son last year.

Analysis: The court’s move not only reinforces significant concerns over dynastic politics but raises doubts over the independence and integrity of Indonesia’s judiciary.

Pakistan’s election leaves weak, unpopular coalition in power

Last updated: 19 February 2024

After failing to win a majority, the army-backed Muslim League-Nawaz will join with the Pakistan People’s Party to form government.

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, won the most seats – though still a minority – even after Khan’s sentencing, military intervention on polling day, and the suspension of mobile services to keep voter turnout low.

Analysis: Marred by Islamic State bombings, allegations of voting rigging, and the opposition’s popularity, the outcome of this election is unlikely to guarantee the political stability Pakistan needs.

Taiwan inaugurates President Lai Ching-te

Last updated: 6 June 2024

Lai Ching-te has been inaugurated as Taiwan’s new president. He has pledged to neither “yield [to] nor provoke” Beijing, and urged China to stop its intimidation of Taiwan.

Lacking a legislative majority, Lai’s presidency has already been marked by protests and parliament brawls over a controversial legislative package, pushed by the opposition.

Analysis: Lai faces a tough first term and a belligerent China – Beijing has scolded South Korean and Japanese ministers for attending the inauguration, and conducted military drills around Taiwan.

Bhutan elects former PM Tshering Tobgay

Last updated: 1 February 2024

Former People’s Democratic Party Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay will return to power after his party won 30 of Bhutan’s 47 national assembly seats in the country’s January 9 election.

This is Bhutan’s fourth democratic election following its transition from a monarchy just 15 years ago.

Analysis: Bhutan’s election is refreshing for South Asia, especially given the controversies in Bangladesh. But the new government has to tackle a struggling post-pandemic economy and mass youth migration.

Hasina wins fifth term in controversial Bangladesh election

Last updated: 1 February 2024

Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League has claimed 222 of 300 parliamentary seats after the main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), boycotted the vote.

A government crackdown on BNP members saw thousands imprisoned before the vote.

Election authorities have reported voter turnout at just 40 per cent, but the real figure is likely to be less.

Analysis: The international community, including Australia, has expressed concern about the election. But India, which is worried about Chinese influence, will likely welcome the continuity in Dhaka’s foreign policy.