2024 Indo-Pacific Elections

This year is set to be one of democracy’s defining moments.

Dubbed ‘the year of elections’, nearly half of the world’s population will be eligible to vote in an election in 2024, with over 4 billion voters across more than 40 countries set to cast their ballots.

The Indo-Pacific is home to some of the most significant and influential of these elections: India, Indonesia, Taiwan and, of course, the United States. In the Indo-Pacific alone, hundreds of millions of people will shape the political future of the region.

This will be a testing year for democracy, for political will, and for regional stability, as voters determine the next few years of political rule.

For curated election news and analyses, see our updates below.

2024 Indo-Pacific Elections

United States of America

Hackers take on US election security challenge

Last updated: 2 September 2024

US election security was one of the most talked about topics at DEF CON, the infamous annual hacking conference held in Las Vegas this month.

Significantly, no one succeeded in the conference’s hacking challenge, which invited anyone to exploit and break the US’ Secure Internet Voting system in a simulated online election.

Analysis: With just months until the US presidential election, the security of electronic vote counting is critical to the transition of power, regardless of who wins. Public officials’ trust in the system would have been reinforced by this exercise; but Trump-voters likely remain sceptical.

Resources on the US election

The outcome of the upcoming US presidential election has the power to greatly influence affairs not only domestically, but particularly within the Indo-Pacific. The complexities of America’s system make the election process difficult for outsiders to decipher and coherently understand. The Perth USAsia Centre is seeking to provide concise explanations of key dates, terms and timelines as the election progresses.

2024 US Election Watch: Episode 6

In Episode 2, the pair discuss Biden’s decision to step down from the race, what this means for the Democratic Party and the impact Harris’ nomination will have on Trump’s campaign

Explore

2024 US Election Watch: Episode 5

In Episode 2, the pair discuss Biden’s decision to step down from the race, what this means for the Democratic Party and the impact Harris’ nomination will have on Trump’s campaign

Explore

2024 US Election Watch: Episode 4

In Episode 2, the pair discuss Biden’s decision to step down from the race, what this means for the Democratic Party and the impact Harris’ nomination will have on Trump’s campaign

Explore

Japan

Shigeru Ishiba re-elected as Japanese Prime Minister despite poor election results

Last updated: 19 November 2024

Japan’s parliament has re-elected Shigeru Ishiba as prime minister, despite his coalition suffering its worst election loss in over a decade.

The election has left an uncharacteristically fragile parliament: the leadership vote went to a runoff for the first time in 30 years, as no candidate achieved majority support in the first round.

Analysis: Still the largest coalition in parliament, Ishiba now faces leading Japan from a minority government – a position his party has not been in since 1996.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka back to the polls for parliamentary election

Last updated: 19 November 2024

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumar Dissanayake’s party has won a landslide victory in the island nation’s parliamentary elections, taking 159 of 225 seats – a two-thirds majority.

After winning September’s presidential election, Dissanayake called a snap election in hopes of securing the public mandate. His party held only three seats in the outgoing parliament.

Analysis: Now backed by a strong majority, Dissanayake is likely to pursue policies aimed at alleviating financial stress amongst the poor. Sri Lanka is still recovering from its 2022 financial crisis.

Mauritius

Opposition wins landslide victory in Mauritius

Last updated: 19 November 2024

Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth has conceded a major defeat in Mauritius’ November 10 parliamentary election. His coalition L’Alliance Lepep won none of the 62 parliamentary seats.

Former prime minister Navin Ramgoolam, leader of the opposition Alliance of Change coalition, will be the next leader of the strategically located Indian Ocean island nation.

Analysis: Jugnauth had hoped his historic Chagos Islands deal with the UK would secure another term. However, a nation-wide social media ban and a wire-tapping scandal overshadowed much of the election.

Thailand

Constitutional Court removes Thailand’s PM

Last updated: 2 September 2024

Thailand’s Constitutional Court has ousted the country’s Prime Minister Sretta Thavisin from the role, for a constitutional violation. Thavisin will be succeeded by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the third member of the Shinawatra family to become prime minister.

A week prior, the had court dissolved the Move Forward Party, which held the most seats in parliament, over its plans to amend strict lèse majesté laws (outlawing criticism of the Thai King).

Analysis: The military-backed government continues to crack down on dissent and uses lèse majesté laws to suppress criticism. The Constitutional Court’s political interventions highlight the key role Thailand’s judiciary has played in this protracted political crisis.

Bangladesh

Muhamad Yunus sworn in as interim leader of Bangladesh

Last updated: 29 August 2024

Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has become the interim leader of Bangladesh, after a month of deadly anti-government protests that saw Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina flee the country.

His appointment fulfils a key demand of protesters. Yunus has called this Bangladesh’s “second liberation” and has stated his intentions to hold elections as soon as possible.

Analysis: This upheaval has caused political prisoners and exiles persecuted under Hasina’s rule to re-emerge in recent weeks. Hasina, who is in India, faces mounting criminal charges for the protests.

France

New Caledonia election postponed by France’s new prime minister

Last updated: 8 October 2024

France’s new prime minister, Michel Barnier, has postponed New Caledonia’s provincial election for a year. The election was originally scheduled to take place on December 15.

Earlier this year, the French Pacific territory was put under a state of emergency after pro-independence demonstrations turned violent over proposed voting laws.

Analysis: France is facing a moment of reckoning with its overseas territories. The government plans to convene a committee early next year to tackle growing dissatisfaction in its territories across the globe.

Mongolia

Mongolian People’s Party ahead in preliminary election results

Last updated: 18 July 2024

The ruling Mongolian People’s Party has narrowly retained majority in Mongolia’s parliament, as endemic corruption continues to erode public confidence in government.

The 2024 election is the first time Mongolians have voted for an extended parliament, which increased from 76 to 126 seats, following a constitutional amendment. Early results suggest a coalition government could be formed.

Analysis: Mongolia has reserves of battery minerals, which are essential for the global energy transition. The stability of its democracy and investment environment matters to the Indo-Pacific.

Republic of South Korea

South Koreans call for President Yoon’s replacement

Last updated: 18 July 2024

Public discontent towards South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has hit an all-time high after an online petition calling for his removal crashed due to popularity.

The petition, which has more than 811,000 signatures, accuses Yoon of corruption and stoking tensions with North Korea. Parliament must review petitions over 50,000 signatures.

Analysis: Yoon has already suffered in the court of public opinion – April’s election results delivered a decisive blow to his party. This petition shows the depth of public disapproval.

India

Modi re-elected despite BJP voting shortfall

Last updated: 6 June 2024

After six weeks of voting, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has claimed victory for his coalition. But vote counts show the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) most lacklustre result in a decade.

The BJP, who were aiming to win a supermajority with 400 seats, were awarded only 240 – losing their outright majority and relying on allies to form government.

Analysis: Modi’s victory is no surprise; he remains one of the world’s most popular leaders. But with mounting concerns over democratic backsliding, these results show that his leadership will be under scrutiny.

Indonesia

Prabowo Subianto sworn in as 8th Indonesian President

Last updated: 29 October 2024

Prabowo, who won almost 60 per cent of the popular vote in February’s presidential race, was inaugurated on 20 October.

He entered office promising continuity with his predecessor Joko Widodo, who oversaw strong economic growth during his 10 years in power.

Analysis: Prabowo has outlined ambitious development goals, but it remains to be seen how he will navigate fiscal challenges, economic nationalism and a complex international environment.

Resources on Indonesia’s election

Taiwan

Taiwan inaugurates President Lai Ching-te

Last updated: 6 June 2024

Lai Ching-te has been inaugurated as Taiwan’s new president. He has pledged to neither “yield [to] nor provoke” Beijing, and urged China to stop its intimidation of Taiwan.

Lacking a legislative majority, Lai’s presidency has already been marked by protests and parliament brawls over a controversial legislative package, pushed by the opposition.

Analysis: Lai faces a tough first term and a belligerent China – Beijing has scolded South Korean and Japanese ministers for attending the inauguration, and conducted military drills around Taiwan.

Pakistan

Pakistan’s election leaves unpopular coalition in power

Last updated: 19 February 2024

After failing to win a majority, the army-backed Muslim League-Nawaz will join with the Pakistan People’s Party to form government.

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, won the most seats – though still a minority – even after Khan’s sentencing, military intervention on polling day, and the suspension of mobile services to keep voter turnout low.

Analysis: Marred by Islamic State bombings, allegations of voting rigging, and the opposition’s popularity, the outcome of this election is unlikely to guarantee the political stability Pakistan needs.

Bhutan

Bhutan elects former PM Tshering Tobgay

Last updated: 1 February 2024

Former People’s Democratic Party Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay will return to power after his party won 30 of Bhutan’s 47 national assembly seats in the country’s January 9 election.

This is Bhutan’s fourth democratic election following its transition from a monarchy just 15 years ago.

Analysis: Bhutan’s election is refreshing for South Asia, especially given the controversies in Bangladesh. But the new government has to tackle a struggling post-pandemic economy and mass youth migration.