The state of democracy in the Indo-Pacific

By Alana Ford

The State of Democracy in the Indo-Pacific offers a timely and accessible analysis of the shifting political landscape across one of the world’s most dynamic regions. With over 4 billion people set to vote across more than 40 countries in 2024, this paper examines the diverse governance models present in the region—from full democracies to authoritarian regimes—and highlights the rise of hybrid systems that blend elements of both. It addresses critical issues such as democratic backsliding and the erosion of civil rights. The paper also explores Australia’s foreign policy challenge in promoting democratic resilience, balancing regional stability, and managing complex relationships with key Indo-Pacific partners.
 
Essential reading for policymakers, scholars, the business community, and anyone invested in the future of democracy in the region. This analysis underscores the importance of democratic governance for security, trade, and Australia’s strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific.

Key Messages

• Milestone year for democracy: This year, over four billion people will be eligible to vote across more than forty countries. Some of the most significant elections are taking place in the Indo-Pacific region.
• More than just an election: Democracy is not just about the process of holding an election. It also includes measures of integrity, freedom, civil liberties, and human rights. The Indo-Pacific region is home to a spectrum of governance models, ranging from full democracies to authoritarian regimes. Many more sit in a political grey zone as hybrid regimes.
• Democratic backsliding: Democracy has been declining globally since 2005, with notable backsliders in the Indo-Pacific including the United States, Fiji, India, Myanmar, Philippines, and Thailand, driven by factors like erosion of civil rights, lack of electoral integrity, and rising populism.
• Australia’s foreign policy challenge: Australia’s foreign policy emphasises promoting democracy and stability in the Indo-Pacific, balancing the need to counter authoritarian influence while maintaining strong regional relationships. This is increasingly difficult to do because the democratic resilience of some key likeminded partners is waning.
• Democracy in Australia needs maintenance: Declining democracy in Australia’s neighbourhood directly impacts Australia, so Australia must remain vigilant in its domestic commitment to upholding liberal democratic principles. It will promote social cohesion, and bolster its credibility and influence abroad.