Cracks in the LDP Stronghold: the significance of the Japanese election
Caught amidst the eddies of the US election, it is easy to overlook the results of Japan’s general election on October 27. But the outcome for Japanese politics matters deeply to Australia and the region.
Since former prime minister Fumio Kishida announced his resignation as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in August, Japanese politics has fundamentally transformed. In late September, his successor, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, was voted in as party leader. Just one month later, the Japanese public went to the polls. The outcome was not what the LDP had expected – in just three months, the ruling coalition has lost its long-held majority.
Calling a snap election mere days after securing the top job was a political gamble Ishiba hoped would pay off. And it was relatively low risk – the LDP has been in power almost continuously since 1955 against an ideologically fragmented opposition. This election was thus seen as an exercise in regaining the public mandate and shoring up internal party politics.
His gamble did not pay off.
Ishiba’s decision to return to the polls so soon led to what he described as an ‘exceptionally harsh judgement’ from Japanese voters; a damning blow that saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) –either individually or with a coalition – lose its majority in the lower house for only the third time in its near 7-decade history.
Out of a possible 465 lower house seats, the LDP won only 191. Combined with its coalition partner, Komeito, it reached 215 – a 64 seat drop from the 2021 election and short of the 233 needed to form a majority. The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CPD), won 148 seats, a 50-seat increase.
Ishiba now faces the unenviable task of navigating the demands of a stronger opposition, as well as his unpopularity within factions of his own party. Having decided to remain in the top job, he must now also concede to form a larger coalition with a third partner or rule from a minority government.
The results speak to the fault lines forming within the LDP stronghold, cracks that have largely been self-inflicted.“
The party has been embroiled in numerous political scandals this last term, including LDP affiliation with the Unification Church – which led to the assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe – and the slush fund scandal that rocked the LDP earlier this year. Add a weakening yen, a cost-of-living crisis, and a rapidly ageing population, and it becomes clear why the public has cumulatively lost trust in its foremost party. When former prime minister Fumio Kishida stepped down as party leader in September, his approval ratings were at just 15.5 per cent.
Disrupting the LDP stronghold
Japanese postwar politics have been characterised by the complete dominance of the LDP. Its power is such that domestic politics largely concern intra-party factional debates, rather than the inter-party competition known to most multi-party democracies. This is demonstrated by the ‘revolving door’ of prime ministers – only 8 postwar prime ministers have made it to the 1,000th day of their term (approximately 2.7 years), and yet the LDP has retained a firm hold on the National Diet (the Japanese parliament). Unlike other democracies, power does not shift between parties, but rather LDP factions.
Previously (in 1993 and 2009), it has taken significant cooperation amongst opposition parties to dethrone the LDP – a notably missing feature of this election. Instead, the results speak to the level of LDP disapproval amongst the Japanese public, with the spread of votes leaving a weakened LDP and an ideologically fragmented legislature. But this does not mean voters were particularly motivated – instead, October 27 saw Japan’s third-lowest voter turnout (53.42 per cent), suggesting growing political apathy.
What this means for Australia and the region
As a fellow member of the Quad and a leader of the rules-based international order in the Indo-Pacific, the strength and stability of Japan’s leadership matters greatly to Australia. A weakened Japanese government will prove a challenge for likeminded partners.
Ishiba is in a tight position – internal instability runs the risk of hampering Japan’s negotiating power on the world stage at a time when regional security is shifting.“
Much has been said about Ishiba’s penchant for defence. A self-described defence ‘otaku’ (‘geek’), the former defence minister is likely to centre security in his premiership. Already, his calls for an Asian NATO and stationing Japanese troops on US regional bases has caused some discomfort amongst partners. Ishiba has also been vocal in Japan’s remilitarisation debate, a pursuit that has often put the LDP at odds with the will of the Japanese people.
Japan’s defence pivot is likely here to stay. But how successful the LDP will be in these pursuits will depend on how it cooperates with other parties. As tax reductions were a popular opposition campaign tactic, the funding of these projects will likely be the sticking point.
The state of Japanese leadership also matters within the context of the recent US election.
The return of President Trump has underpinned foreign policy discussions in Japan for months now; an anxiety so pervasive it has entered the Japanese vernacular via the portmanteau ‘もしトラ’ (‘moshi tora’, meaning ‘what if Trump [returns]?’). Trump’s transactional approach to global partnerships has fostered concern for the erosion of US-led security structures in the region.
Japanese politics were markedly different during the previous Trump administration – Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest serving prime minister, held an especially firm grip on the Japanese Diet. This allowed Abe to respond quickly to the challenges posed by Trump’s often unorthodox approach to diplomacy. Already standing on rocky political footing, Ishiba will not enjoy the same liberties.
Though Japan will ride this tide of instability, any weakening of its regional position risks emboldening its foes and increasing pressure on its friends.