↗ The Red Sea, responsible for twenty-two per cent of global container traffic, has proven highly vulnerable to disruption. Houthi attacks beginning in late 2023 forced a significant shift of maritime traffic to the Cape of Good Hope route, directly affecting Australia’s trade with Europe. 

↗ Despite this historic reliance on the Cape of Good Hope route, Australian strategic policy has not adequately addressed the Southwestern Indian Ocean. The region receives minimal attention in strategic guidance, leaving Australia unprepared for disruptions to this critical trade artery. 

↗ China is rapidly expanding influence with the Southwestern Indian Ocean states of South Africa, Mozambique, and Madagascar. All three have increased cooperation with China while South Africa’s relations with the United States deteriorate. Beijing’s growing defence partnerships position it to shape access to the Cape of Good Hope route during future crises. 

↗ Low-cost, high-impact opportunities exist for Australian engagement. Options include inviting regional states to the Defence Cooperation Program and Indo-Pacific Endeavour, and bolstering the substantial relationships Australia already enjoys with regional states through regional organisations like the Indian Ocean Rim Association.